Mogul - Critical Thinking

Do you think $f1 will be a $h[HIT] or a $f[FLOP]? HIT!(click:"HIT!")[(set:$film1 to true)(go-to:"film1")] FLOP!(click:"FLOP!")[(set:$film1 to false)(go-to:"film1")] [[(decide later)|film1]]

You open the folder on your desk. Your team have shortlisted five movies that the studio could potentially produce this year. But not all of these will be financial successes. It's your job to cut through the noise and select the films that you think will be a $h[HIT], rather than a $f[FLOP]. [[Get started|Look at movies]]

Do you think $f2 will be a $h[HIT] or a $f[FLOP]? HIT!(click:"HIT!")[(set:$film2 to true)(go-to:"film2")] FLOP!(click:"FLOP!")[(set:$film2 to false)(go-to:"film2")] [[(decide later)|film2]]

Do you think $f3 will be a $h[HIT] or a $f[FLOP]? HIT!(click:"HIT!")[(set:$film3 to true)(go-to:"film3")] FLOP!(click:"FLOP!")[(set:$film3 to false)(go-to:"film3")] [[(decide later)|film3]]

Do you think $f4 will be a $h[HIT] or a $f[FLOP]? HIT!(click:"HIT!")[(set:$film4 to true)(go-to:"film4")] FLOP!(click:"FLOP!")[(set:$film4 to false)(go-to:"film4")] [[(decide later)|film4]]

Do you think $f5 will be a $h[HIT] or a $f[FLOP]? HIT!(click:"HIT!")[(set:$film5 to true)(go-to:"film5")] FLOP!(click:"FLOP!")[(set:$film5 to false)(go-to:"film5")] [[(decide later)|film5]]

"Things ain't what they used to be. But some things never change. This industry is full of posers and people who got lucky. You can't say for sure that someone who's made good films in the past is gonna make good ones in the future. You also can't always trust your gut instincts - I've learned that the hard way. " [[Thanks Buster|Veteran]]

"The thing you have to know about the movie industry today is that it's all relative. The old way of doing things was to play it safe with genres, but nowadays it's the less traditional films that often see the biggest upsides. That's just something to bear in mind while you make your decisions." [[Thanks Matty.|Influencer]]

(if:$film1 is 0 or $film2 is 0 or $film3 is 0 or $film4 is 0 or $film5 is 0)[(redirect:"Look at movies")](else:)[So - you've made your decisions. But will you pull it off? $h[Films you want to make:](if:$film1)[ $f1](if:$film2)[ $f2](if:$film3)[ $f3](if:$film4)[ $f4](if:$film5)[ $f5] $f[Films we should avoid:](if:$film1 is false)[ $f1](if:$film2 is false)[ $f2](if:$film3 is false)[ $f3](if:$film4 is false)[ $f4](if:$film5 is false)[ $f5] Are you happy with your choices? [[Yes!|Intermission]] [[No... let me rethink|Look at movies]]]

"Hey! It’s good to have you here at Omniversal. As you know I’ve been here a long time, and seen a lot of people come and go. I’ve worked with all the greats." "If you need my advice, just ask. And between you and me – ignore what that Matty kid has to say." [[Thanks Buster|Veteran]]

"Hey! I’m sorry if we got off to a bad start. That old Buster really gets to me. I'd be cautious of his advice. I’m excited to work with you, and I think we can bring something really interesting to the table." "I know I’m young but I know better than anyone what today's audience wants. Just ask." [[Thanks Matty.|Influencer]]

The assistant shows you to your office, and you make yourself comfortable behind the big desk. There's a welcome folder on your desk. But you don't open it. You already know what you need to do. Omniversal Studios is in dire financial straits. The last President made some bad decisions and lost the company hundreds of millions. [[You’re not going to make the same mistakes.]]

(if: visits <2)[You buzz your assistant through the intercom. "Hey don't worry," they reply. "Its simple." ] 1. Look at each movie 2. Ask Matty and Buster their advice on the films. 3. Based on their advice and your own judgement, decide if that movie will either be a $h[HIT] or a $f[FLOP] 4. When you're done. Choose CONFIRM your choices. [[Look at movies]] [[Speak to your advisors|Speak to advisors]]

<img src="Matty.png" alt="Matty" class="responsive"> "This one's a biggie. Emma Bukowski's a genius, and I loved //Yeehaw Dracula//." "Some people say she's not cut out to make big movies. I disagree. Her older films were made in smaller genres, but did really well for those genres. //Yeehaw Dracula// was the highest-grossing vampire western ever made, and //When Harry Met Big Sal// topped the charts in the mafia rom-com genre. Just think what she could do in a much bigger genre!" [[Back to movie|film1]]

<img src="Matty.png" alt="Matty" class="responsive"> "I think this one's a tricky one. The Turbo Squad movies have obviously been huge in the past." "But if you listen to the younger generation, superhero films are really on the turn. When //Turbo Squad 4: Implosion Time// came out, superheroes were at their peak, and superhero movies were making up 20% of the box office. That number is now more like 10%. If you bear in mind the fact that the budget for Turbo Squad 5 would need to be even bigger than before, then this might not be the safe bet it initially looks like." [[Back to movie|film2]]

<img src="Matty.png" alt="Matty" class="responsive"> "//Yak Point //is a big one. I know what you're thinking - 'Mongolian Surfing'? But here's the thing - it's been huge on TikTok. These guys have gone viral in a big way." "I know there's some caution about this - as a studio we lost a lot of money on a similar film a few years ago. But that was just one film. I really think this time will be different - there's a whole audience out there waiting for this one." [[Back to movie|film3]]

<img src="Matty.png" alt="Matty" class="responsive"> "Oh we've GOT to make this one. Filippo Berio is, like, a genius. Just look at his record! I can't think of single film of his that hasn't been a hit." "His last film, //Oceanic//, came out in 2015, and that was the highest grossing film of the year! This one's a sure thing if you ask me. I'm really excited to see what he'll make with such a big budget and cast." [[Back to movie|film4]]

<img src="Matty.png" alt="Matty" class="responsive"> "Oh, here we go, the sausage movie. I gotta say, I don't think this one's cut out for success. Sure, I know the case for it: the TV show's huge, the kids are all buying the merch and doing the Little Sausage dance." "Here's why I don't think it's a safe bet though. The director's a liability. Me and him have personal beef after I trashed his last movie. But leaving that aside, the script made me despair. I really, really hate this movie, and I wouldn't go near it." [[Back to movie|film5]]

<img src="Matty.png" alt="Matty" class="responsive">(if: visits is < 2)[ Matt ‘mattsm3mes’ Michaelson – Matt’s the new kid on the block, but he’s got some serious credentials. He started his movie review channel on YouTube aged 14. Now, ten years later, it has five million subscribers. Part of what made his channel so popular was his notorious ‘cringe-o-meter’, where he mercilessly ridiculed some movie greats. He's known for how well he understands the youth audience. Although he gives off an edgy and irreverent vibe, underneath it he has a serious business sense. Now he’s taken on a key role at Omniversal Pictures, since he has an ear to the ground of what the younger generation are looking for. ] "Waddup, how can I help?" says Matty. [[Chat with Matty]] [[Ask Matty for advice]] [[Chat with Buster instead|Veteran]] [[Look at movies]]

It’s a bright, hot, California morning. You’re standing in front of a glass skyscraper that stretches way up into the sky above you. Above the sliding doors, there’s a logo known all over the world: Omniversal Pictures. You’ve been waiting for this moment for months – in fact, you’ve been waiting for it your whole life. It’s your first day as President of the world’s biggest film studio. You remember the advice your partner gave you this morning: ‘don’t mess this up’. You take a deep breath, and [[step through the door.|Introductory preamble and setting the scene]]

As you step inside, you see two men at the other end of the big, air-conditioned lobby. One’s an older man in a leather cowboy hat, brown blazer and bootcut jeans. The other is a young man in his twenties with green hair, wearing a pink hoodie. They seem to be having some sort of argument. [[You walk closer.]]

(if: visits <2)[(redirect:"1st look at movies")](else:)[''Which movie do you want to take a closer look at?'' [[$f1|film1]] (if:$film1 is true)[- $h[HIT]](else-if:$film1 is false)[- $f[FLOP]](else:)[] [[$f2|film2]] (if:$film2 is true)[- $h[HIT]](else-if:$film2 is false)[- $f[FLOP]](else:)[] [[$f3|film3]] (if:$film3 is true)[- $h[HIT]](else-if:$film3 is false)[- $f[FLOP]](else:)[] [[$f4|film4]] (if:$film4 is true)[- $h[HIT]](else-if:$film4 is false)[- $f[FLOP]](else:)[] [[$f5|film5]] (if:$film5 is true)[- $h[HIT]](else-if:$film5 is false)[- $f[FLOP]](else:)[] (if:$film1 is 0 or $film2 is 0 or $film3 is 0 or $film4 is 0 or $film5 is 0)[(once you've made a decision on each you can confirm your choices)](else:)[[CONFIRM YOUR CHOICES]] Or: [[Speak to your advisors|Speak to advisors]] [[Read instructions|Help!]]]

Who do you want to speak to? [[Speak to Buster|Veteran]] [[Speak to Matty|Influencer]] [[Look at movies instead.|Look at movies]]

In the real world, spotting biases when they occur is not simple. This is an interactive case study, designed to test your ability to spot and avoid six different biases in a real-world scenario. It should take around ''15-20 minutes''. Good luck! [[Start|Introduction]]

{ (set:$f1 to "//Dreamers: When Teresa Met Nelson//") (set:$f2 to "//Turbo Squad 5: Re-vengeance//") (set:$f3 to "//Yak Point//") (set:$f4 to "//Futuropopopolis//") (set:$f5 to "//Little Sausage's Big Adventure//") (set:$h to (color: green)) (set:$f to (color: red)) }

<img src="Buster.png" alt="Buster McCuster" class="responsive"> "Now this Dreamers film here's an interesting one. It's got a big cast for sure, and a story like that's always gonna go down well." "But if you ask me, this director ain't a safe bet. She's only made small-time stuff. Her last film was a, watchya call it, vampire western movie. Sure it did better than expected, but it's still small fry. Same goes for her other movies. I'd pass on this one!" [[Back to movie|film1]]

<img src="Buster.png" alt="Buster McCuster" class="responsive"> "Now I'll be honest, I don't like these movies. Too many computer-generated aliens and interdimensional whatnots for me." "But I've got to admit, these are bankable characters and bankable stars. We've milked this cash cow four times already, why not make it five? Turbo Squad 4 was the biggest superhero film of the year two years ago. I don't think all those people are just not gonna show up for the next instalment. This is as safe a moneymaker as you're gonna get." [[Back to movie|film2]]

<img src="Buster.png" alt="Buster McCuster" class="responsive"> "This //Yak Point// is a hard no for me. Why? Well, about 20 years ago we tried to make a film about something similar. I think it was about Kazakhstani surfers." "That was a huge flop - lost us millions ultimately. In fact, it was actually pretty remarkable that such a small film could have lost us so much money! I think we should be careful not to make that same mistake again." [[Back to movie|film3]]

<img src="Buster.png" alt="Buster McCuster" class="responsive"> "These young 'uns love to talk about Filippo Berio as a legend. And he is! His big hits are iconic. I could tell you a few stories about what me and him got up to back in the day but I'll save that for another time." "Here's the thing with Filippo though. He's actually a crackpot. He's been trying to get films like this off of the ground for decades. Everyone thinks that he always has hits, but that's because they only see the ones that made it past the studios. Trust me, I've seen this before with this guy. You don't wanna make this Futoropopopopopolis movie." [[Back to movie|film4]]

<img src="Buster.png" alt="Buster McCuster" class="responsive"> "Now I've worked with this director before and, ahem, yeah... he has his own way of doing things." "But I've seen the merchandising potential from this movie. It doesn't matter how good or bad the script is on this one. I've seen how much people seem to like that gosh-darned sausage. Hell, I've even sung the 'Little Sausage Song' in the car with my kids. It pains me to say it, but I think this film is gonna make big bucks.." [[Back to movie|film5]]

<img src="Buster.png" alt="Buster McCuster" class="responsive">(if: visits is < 2)[ Buster McCuster is a ‘Hollywood legend’ (at least, according to his business card). He’s a hard-living, straight-talking producer of the old school – he claims he once beat Marlon Brando in a habanero-eating competition. His filmmaking philosophy is simple: a good story, well told, will always go down well. He has little time for 'arthouse eurotrash'. He understands that in Hollywood, money talks. For decades, producers have relied on Buster’s sound ability to pick hits. But he’s started to look out of date, in a film industry that’s changing beyond recognition. ] "Hey boss, how can I help?" says Buster. [[Chat with Buster]] [[Ask Buster for Advice]] [[Chat with Matty instead|Influencer]] [[Look at movies]]

<img src="Buster.png" alt="Buster McCuster" class="responsive"> "Well, hello! Welcome to our little film studio. We’re all just thrilled to have our new President joining us. My name’s Buster McCuster. I’ve been at Omniversal for forty years, and if I remember rightly, I’ve never made a bad movie in that time. I’ll be your right-hand man. Well, myself and this kid". He gestures to his green-haired colleague. [[You look at the younger man]]

<img src="Matty.png" alt="Matty" class="responsive"> "Waddup," the young man says. "I’m Matty. You probably know my channel mattsm3mes. I mean, of course you know it. Well yeah, I’m now working here to help old folks like Buster make stuff that my generation will actually wanna watch. It should be fun, I guess." You can already tell there’s little love between these two – they’ll each have their own biases when it comes to making movies. But perhaps you can use that to your advantage. Just as you are thinking this, an assistant appears to your side. "Shall I show you to your office?" [[You follow.|Enter Office]]

"You wouldn’t have lasted one minute back when we made real pictures. Me and McQueen –". The older man stops mid sentence as they notice you approach, and instantly his face turns to a warm smile. [[You look at him]]

Your job is simple. Pick good movies that will make the studio money. You’ll be presented with several options, along with information about them. You'll also be given advice on each film from your two advisors. These will contain important information - but watch out for cognitive biases. It’s up to you to try to pick the ones that have the best chances of success. You’ll be making these decisions based on limited, biased information, but if you think carefully enough, you should be able to figure out which ones stand a good chance, and which ones are more likely to flop. So where should you start? [[Speak to Buster|Veteran]] [[Speak to Matty|Influencer]] [[Take a look at the movies|Look at movies]]

<img src="Dreamers Poster.png" alt="Dreamers" class="responsive"> ''Title'': $f1 ''Genre'': A-List historical drama ''Synopsis'': The true story of two 20th century heroes - Nelson Mandela and Mother Teresa - and their unlikely meeting in a Taco Bell ''Brief Description'': The director of this film, Emily Bukowski, has made several cult hits in the past. This is the first time she'll be directing a big, prestige blockbuster. The title roles will be played by two legends, Gordon Teaman and Beryl Peep. Currently you (if:$film1 is true)[think this will be a ''$h[HIT]''.](else-if:$film1 is false)[think this film will be a ''$f[FLOP]''.](else:)[are ''UNDECIDED'' about this film.] [[Ask Buster about this film|V1]] [[Ask Matty about this film|I1]] (if: $film1 is 0)[[[Make a DECISION about this film|1D]]](else:)[[[CHANGE your mind about this film|1D]]] [[Look at another movie|Look at movies]]

<img src="Turbo Squad Poster.png" alt="Turbo Squad" class="responsive"> ''Title'': //$f2// ''Genre'': Superhero ''Synopsis'': You might have thought that the universe imploding at the end of Turbo Squad 4: Implosion Time was the end of the series. But no -- the gang is back and ready for more interdimensional insanity. ''Brief description'': This is a major superhero series that has broken all the box-office records. The same director and cast are on board as before. Currently you (if:$film2 is true)[think this will be a ''$h[HIT]''.](else-if:$film2 is false)[think this film will be a ''$f[FLOP]''.](else:)[are ''UNDECIDED'' about this film.] [[Ask Buster about this film|V2]] [[Ask Matty about this film|I2]] (if: $film2 is 0)[[[Make a DECISION about this film|2D]]](else:)[[[CHANGE your mind about this film|2D]]] [[Look at another movie|Look at movies]]

<img src="Yak Point Poster.png" alt="Yak Point" class="responsive"> ''Title'': //$f3// ''Genre'': Documentary ''Synopsis'': The unlikely story of how a small band of Mongolian surfers took the global surf community by storm. ''Brief description'': This is a niche documentary about a highly uplifting story. The director has made some high-grossing documentaries before. Currently you (if:$film3 is true)[think this will be a ''$h[HIT]''.](else-if:$film3 is false)[think this film will be a ''$f[FLOP]''.](else:)[are ''UNDECIDED'' about this film.] [[Ask Buster about this film|V3]] [[Ask Matty about this film|I3]] (if: $film3 is 0)[[[Make a DECISION about this film|3D]]](else:)[[[CHANGE your mind about this film|3D]]] [[Look at another movie|Look at movies]]

<img src="Futuropolis Poster.png" alt="Futuropopopolis" class="responsive"> ''Title'': //$f4// ''Genre'': Epic Sci-Fi ''Synopsis'': Imagine a future in which the whole world was covered by one vast, sprawling city, ruled by a shady elite. Welcome to Futoropopopolis ''Brief description'': This is a passion project by legendary director Filippo Berio, known for his classic 70s and 80s films. He's been struggling for decades to get funding for this movie, but now it looks like the project is finally off the ground. Currently you (if:$film4 is true)[think this will be a ''$h[HIT]''.](else-if:$film4 is false)[think this film will be a ''$f[FLOP]''.](else:)[are ''UNDECIDED'' about this film.] [[Ask Buster about this film|V4]] [[Ask Matty about this film|I4]] (if: $film4 is 0)[[[Make a DECISION about this film|4D]]](else:)[[[CHANGE your mind about this film|4D]]] [[Look at another movie|Look at movies]]

<img src="Little Sausage Poster.png" alt="Little Sausage" class="responsive"> ''Title'': //$f5// ''Genre'': Animated Kid's Film ''Synopsis'': One little sausage. One big dream. What's the wurst that could happen? ''Brief description'': Animated kid's film that is building on the viral 'little sausage' character that's gotten big on TikTok. A script has been cobbled together to capitalise on the internet trend. Currently you (if:$film5 is true)[think this will be a ''$h[HIT]''.](else-if:$film5 is false)[think this film will be a ''$f[FLOP]''.](else:)[are ''UNDECIDED'' about this film.] [[Ask Buster about this film|V5]] [[Ask Matty about this film|I5]] (if: $film5 is 0)[[[Make a DECISION about this film|5D]]](else:)[[[CHANGE your mind about this film|5D]]] [[Look at another movie|Look at movies]]

(if: $score > 4)[This month's copy of TIME magazine has just landed on your doorstep. And guess who's on the cover. It's you! 'Hollywood's Saviour', it says underneath. How about that? By keeping a level head and making the right decisions, you picked all the right movies and saved Hollywood's biggest studio. Kudos to you!](else-if: $score >0)[You arrive at Omniversal Studios for another day in the office. Everyone you walk past gives you a smile and a nod. As you sit at your desk you reflect on your first to years in the job. Not bad, but you could have been better. Still, you've got plenty of work to do, and you feel ready not to make the same mistakes next time.](else:)[It's another sunny morning as you find yourself standing in front of the Omniversal HQ. But this time, you aren't going inside. The new president walks past you, not noticing you. You keep walking by, destined for the local multiplex, where you work behind the counter making popcorn and slushies. If only you'd been a bit better at picking movies...] [[Next]]

Thank you so much for playing this experimental case-study. This game was made by ''Hughie Rogers-Coltman'' and ''Daniel Lambton-Howard'' as part of an experiment in teaching critical thinking skills for <a href="https://kinnu.xyz/">Kinnu.</a> We hope you enjoyed it.

<img src="Dreamers Poster.png" alt="Dreamers" class="responsive"> ''Title'': $f1 This was a huge hit at the box office and in the awards ceremonies. Buster was worried that the director had only made small films before. But as Matty pointed out, those films were actually big within their genres. Once you factor in the base rates, they were big films. ''FINAL RESULT'': $h[HIT] ''Your choice'': (if:$film1)[$h[HIT](set:$score to $score+1)](else:)[$f[FLOP](set:$score to $score-1)] (if:$film1)[Well done!](else:)[Unlucky!] [[Next film|Result2]]

<img src="Turbo Squad Poster.png" alt="Turbo Squad" class="responsive"> ''Title'': $f2 Relative to its budget this film didn't do so well, and was a bit of a disappointment. As Matty pointed out, the base rates for the superhero genre, in terms of its market share, have been decreasing. So even though the series had done well previously, this one did less well than expected. ''FINAL RESULT'': $f[FLOP] ''Your choice'': (if:$film2)[$h[HIT](set:$score to $score-1)](else:)[$f[FLOP](set:$score to $score+1)] (if:$film2 is false)[Well done!](else:)[Unlucky!] [[Next film|Result3]]

<img src="Yak Point Poster.png" alt="Yak Point" class="responsive"> ''Title'': $f3 This was the unexpected hit of the year. Despite its niche subject-matter, audiences flocked to see this one. Buster thought that the similar documentary that flopped was a sign that this one would too, but he was generalising from too small a sample size. ''FINAL RESULT'': $h[HIT] ''Your choice'': (if:$film3)[$h[HIT](set:$score to $score+1)](else:)[$f[FLOP](set:$score to $score-1)] (if:$film3)[Well done!](else:)[Unlucky!] [[Next film|Result4]]

<img src="Futuropolis Poster.png" alt="Futuropopopolis" class="responsive"> ''Title'': $f4 This one was an absolute car crash at the box office. Matty was showing a bit of attribution bias when he claimed that this director only made hits. He was also falling into the survivor bias. Buster was right to point out that the director only seemed to have a perfect record, because no one had seen all the films he'd tried to make but had been rejected. ''FINAL RESULT'': $f[FLOP] ''Your choice'': (if:$film4)[$h[HIT](set:$score to $score-1)](else:)[$f[FLOP](set:$score to $score+1)] (if:$film4 is false)[Well done!](else:)[Unlucky!] [[Next film|Result5]]

<img src="Little Sausage Poster.png" alt="Little Sausage" class="responsive"> ''Title'': $f5 Despite both the advisors hating this one, it turned out to be a big hit. Buster was right to point out that even though he didn't like it, that wasn't a reason that it wouldn't be succesful. Matty fell foul of the like/dislike bias on this one! ''FINAL RESULT'': $h[HIT] ''Your choice'': (if:$film5)[$h[HIT](set:$score to $score+1)](else:)[$f[FLOP](set:$score to $score-1)] (if:$film5)[Well done!](else:)[Unlucky!] [[FINAL RESULT]]

It's been two years since you decided on which films would be $h[HITS] and which would be $f[FLOPS], and after the full production cycle of your chosen films is complete, the results are in. [[See the results|Result 1]]

[[Two Years Pass...|StartB]]